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In decimal scale the DJ seems to go parabolic the last 5 years.
It is possible to obtain much better picture if the index is shown in logarithmic scale. The index values will not be parabolic anymore, they will be linear with some deviations to upside or downside. By doing the linear regression in logarithmic scale, it is possible to obtain the average values of DJ index depending on the time. Also is possible to obtain the mean deviation from the average (the two parallel lines, or “band” where the index can be expected to move. I did analyze values of DJ on monthly closing for 3 time periods
-long-term  - from 1915 till end of october 1999
-medium term – from 1978 till end of october 1999
-short term – from 1994 till october 29 1999

If the values of the DJ average leave the “band” there is a tendency to correct.
I did draw a parallel line from the top in 1929 to present time. We are well above the long term band. (Overbought  2.85 above mean value that is 3763).  DJ value today equivalent to the peak in 1929 would be approximately DJ = 12794
 
 

I did similar thing with the peak in 1987. The present value of that peak would be DJ = 11688
We are well above the medium term band. (Overbought 1.26 above the mean value that is 8516).
 

However DJ is "oversold" (aproximately 6% below the mean, that is 11434 )  within the short term band starting in 1994,  so the incredible rally have still some room to go. (maybe to 13160?)
Other important number is 9550 that would be extrapolation of 1998 lows. a close below that number might bring correction of the 1987 type  and bring DJ into the 7000 range
or the correction of the 1929 type and bring DJ into the 3000 range
 

These values are purely statistical and do not include any fundamentals whatsoever. They might give a hint if the index is “overbought” or “oversold”.  I recommend to compare them with the rearview vision after the crash. The analysis was performed october 29, 1999. Will look at it again in about a week, or when something interesting will happen.

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Some Milestones
May 26, 1896	Index is launched by Charles Dow at 40.94 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average then had only 12 stocks, not 30.
October 28-29, 1929	Stock market crashes at 12.82% and 11.73% back to back (38.33 and 30.57 points), and ushers in the Great Depression.
February 8, 1971	NASDAQ Stock Market is born.
November 14, 1972	Dow's first close above 1000, called Wall Street's equivalent of breaking the sound barrier.
August 12, 1982	Birth of the long-term bull market as viewed by some analysts.
October 19, 1987	Black Monday crash of record at 22.61% or 508 points.
October 11, 1990	Commonly recognized start of current bull market.
November 21, 1995	DJIA has first-ever close above 5000 nine months after hitting 4000.
May 1996	Centennial of Dow Jones Industrial Average is celebrated.
December 5, 1996	Greenspan warns of "irrational exuberance" in markets.
October 27-28, 1997	Biggest-ever point loss at 554.26 (but only 7.18%) followed by then-biggest point gain; 337.17 (4.71%)
September 8, 1998	Biggest-ever point gain at 380.53, or 4.98%, after seven weeks of declines on global economic turmoil.
March 29, 1999	Dow Jones Industrial Average jumps 184.54, or 1.88% to 10006.78 primarily behind tech-stock rally.